Section 01 · The Temperature Record
How we know — and what 1.45°C actually means.
NASA's GISTEMP dataset goes back to 1880, combining land surface temperature stations, ocean buoys, and ship measurements. Berkeley Earth independently reconstructs temperature from 1750. Both show the same unmistakable signal: acceleration after 1980, record-breaking after 2015.
Global surface temperature anomaly — NASA GISTEMP (adjusted to pre-industrial)
NASA GISTEMP uses 1951–1980 as its reference period. Values below adjusted approximately +0.2°C to align with pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline consistent with IPCC AR6 and WMO reporting.
How much has your region warmed?
Select a region to see its warming since pre-industrial times (1850–1900 baseline). Regional warming is measured independently from the global average.
Berkeley Earth 2023 — Arctic amplification: warming 3–4× global average
Sea level rise — NASA satellite altimetry (1993–2023)
Since satellite measurements began in 1993, global mean sea level has risen ~101mm (10.1 cm). The rate is accelerating: 3.7mm/year average since 1993, but 4.8mm/year in the most recent decade.
Section 02 · Who Emits What
Current emissions vs
historical responsibility.
The CO₂ that drives warming accumulates in the atmosphere over centuries. Current annual emissions tell one story. Cumulative historical emissions — who put the carbon there — tell a different, morally significant one.
Annual emissions (2022)
Share of global CO₂ from fossil fuels. Global Carbon Project 2023.
Cumulative 1850–2022
Historical responsibility for the stock of CO₂ in the atmosphere today.
The equity dimension — per capita responsibility
Section 03 · What's Happening Now
2023 — a year of firsts.
Climate change doesn't manifest as a smooth temperature curve — it shows up in extreme events that break records previously considered once-in-a-century. In 2023, several converged simultaneously.
Canada wildfires — unprecedented scale
Canada's 2023 wildfire season burned ~18.5 million hectares — more than 7× the previous record (2.5M ha in 1989). Smoke blanketed New York City, turning skies orange. World Resources Institute attributed the scale directly to drought conditions consistent with climate projections.
18.5M hectares burned — 7× previous national record
Libya floods — 11,000 deaths
In September 2023, Mediterranean storm Daniel caused catastrophic flooding in Derna, Libya, killing 11,000+ people. World Weather Attribution analysis found rainfall intensity was 50× more likely due to climate change. Warming Mediterranean Sea temperatures intensified the storm dramatically.
11,000+ deaths. 50× more likely due to climate change (WWA)
Ocean heat — all-time record
Global ocean surface temperatures reached record highs in 2023 — significantly above previous records going back to 1981. The North Atlantic reached temperatures 4–5°C above average in some regions. NOAA confirmed 2023 ocean heat content was the highest ever measured in the full depth record.
Ocean heat content 2023: highest ever recorded at all depths
Antarctic sea ice — extreme low
Antarctic sea ice extent in February 2023 reached a record minimum — 1 million km² below the previous record, itself only set in 2022. Scientists described the anomaly as 'five sigma' — an event so far outside normal variability that it was not explained by any single factor.
February 2023: 1M km² below previous record — 'five sigma' anomaly
India heatwaves — extending season
India experienced its earliest and longest heatwave season in 2023, with April temperatures in northern states reaching 44–46°C. The India Meteorological Department confirmed 2023's pre-monsoon heatwave was one of the most severe on record for extent and duration.
North India April 2023: 44–46°C · IMD: one of most severe pre-monsoon heatwaves on record
Glacier retreat — irreversible losses
The World Glacier Monitoring Service reported 2023 saw record glacier mass loss for the second consecutive year. UNESCO declared that 50 UNESCO World Heritage glaciers will disappear by 2100 regardless of emissions cuts, due to already-accumulated warming.
Record glacier mass loss 2023 (2nd consecutive record year) — WGMS
Section 04 · IPCC Projections
Where we're headed —
and what changes it.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021–2023) is the largest scientific synthesis in history — 234 authors, 14,000+ cited studies. Its projections are scenarios, not predictions: what happens under different emissions pathways.
IPCC AR6 — projected global warming by 2100 (°C above pre-industrial)
SSP = Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. SSP1 = aggressive decarbonisation; SSP5 = continued fossil fuel expansion. Current policy trajectory (as of 2023) places us between SSP2 and SSP3 — roughly 2.5–3°C by 2100.
South Asia food security
IPCC AR6 projects yield reductions of 8–35% for wheat and rice in South Asia under 2–4°C warming, threatening food security for 1.5–2 billion people in the region.
Indian monsoon destabilisation
Warmer oceans intensify monsoon rainfall on average, but also increase variability — more extreme wet events and more prolonged dry spells. CMIP6 models consistently project this 'wet gets wetter, dry gets drier' pattern for South Asia.
Extreme heat — 35°C wet bulb
The wet-bulb threshold for human survival without cooling is ~35°C. IPCC projects parts of South Asia, West Africa, and the Persian Gulf could regularly exceed survivable outdoor wet-bulb temperatures by 2100 under high-emissions scenarios.
The warming signal is unambiguous. The physics is settled. What remains uncertain is the policy response — specifically, whether emissions cuts will arrive fast enough to avoid the most damaging thresholds. The data says we are not on track. It also says the trajectory is still changeable.
India sits in a paradoxical position: contributing only 4% of historical emissions, yet facing some of the most severe projected impacts — from monsoon disruption to extreme heat to coastal flooding. Understanding the gap between responsibility and vulnerability is essential to any honest analysis of global climate policy.
What the data tells us
At 1.5°C, we lose most coral reefs and many glaciers. At 2°C, heat extremes become routine across South Asia. At 3°C, the monsoon system becomes unpredictable. The difference between those outcomes is measured in the next decade of policy, investment, and technology deployment — not the next century.
References